Lawmakers enter the final week of debate on the economic reform bill

The bill runs to more than three hundred pages and touches almost every part of the public balance sheet. Committee reports released on Monday recommend keeping the revised tax thresholds, softening the timetable for subsidy withdrawal and adding a borrowing ceiling that would bind future budgets.

Leadership on both sides expects a narrow result. Several members from states that depend heavily on federal transfers have signalled they will not support the transfer formula in its current form.

The clauses that will decide the vote

Three provisions are doing the political work. The first widens the tax base by removing long-standing exemptions. The second phases out fuel and electricity support over thirty months rather than eighteen. The third caps new domestic borrowing as a share of revenue.

Economists broadly welcome the borrowing cap and warn that the exemption removals will be felt first by small importers unless the compensating relief is passed in the same session.

“Sequencing matters more than the headline reform. Remove the cushion before the relief lands and you lose public consent for the whole programme.”Dr Ibrahim Sanusi, fiscal policy researcher, Centre for Public Finance, Abuja

What happens next

A clause-by-clause reading is scheduled for Wednesday, with a final vote expected before the chamber rises on Friday. If the bill passes, implementing regulations must be published within ninety days.