Nigeria’s Inflation Falls to 14.63%, but Food and Energy Costs Remain a Concern

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped to 14.63 per cent in September 2026, down from 15.39 per cent in August, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The new figure represents a decline of 0.76 percentage points from the previous month and a much lower rate than the 20.98 per cent recorded in September 2025.

The latest report provides another indication that the pace of inflation in Nigeria is slowing. However, the figures also show that the improvement is not happening equally across every part of the economy.

While the overall inflation rate declined, food inflation remained close to 20 per cent, and energy prices recorded a significant monthly increase. These developments matter because food, transportation, electricity and other essential expenses take up a large part of household budgets.

What the Latest Inflation Figures Show

The NBS report showed that headline inflation stood at 14.63 per cent in September, compared with 15.39 per cent in August.

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation was 0.06 per cent in September, compared with 0.71 per cent in August. This indicates that the average price level increased much more slowly during September than it did in the previous month.

The distinction between the annual and monthly figures is important. The annual rate compares prices with the same period in the previous year, while the monthly rate measures the movement between August and September.

The September figures therefore show that inflationary pressure slowed during the month. They do not mean that the general cost of goods and services has returned to earlier levels.

Food Prices Remain a Major Concern

Food continues to be one of the most important parts of Nigeria’s inflation story because households cannot easily avoid spending money on basic food items.

The NBS reported that food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, compared with 19.57 per cent in August.

However, the month-on-month food inflation rate fell to -1.55 per cent in September from 1.02 per cent in August. This means that the average price of food items covered by the index declined during the month.

Some of the food items that recorded price movements included local rice, maize flour, guinea corn flour, eggs, onions, palm oil, potatoes, okra, tomatoes and plantain.

Although the monthly decline is a positive development, it does not mean every food item became cheaper or that all Nigerian markets experienced the same price changes.

For many households, the real test will be whether the reduction becomes noticeable in the prices they pay when buying food.

Energy Costs Are Moving in a Different Direction

Another important part of the September report is the movement in energy prices.

While headline inflation slowed, month-on-month energy inflation increased by 5.38 per cent in September.

This is important because energy costs affect more than household electricity bills. Businesses depend on energy to operate equipment, preserve products, manufacture goods and provide services.

When electricity and fuel expenses rise, business owners may have to spend more money to keep their operations running. Some may eventually increase their prices to cover those additional expenses.

Transportation businesses can also feel the impact because fuel costs influence the amount required to move people and goods from one location to another.

This means that even when food prices record some monthly reductions, rising energy expenses can continue to put pressure on other parts of the economy.

What Is Happening to Core Inflation?

Core inflation provides another way to understand the movement of prices in the economy.

It measures price changes while excluding certain volatile items, particularly farm produce and energy, depending on the statistical measure being used.

The NBS reported that core inflation stood at 12.95 per cent year-on-year in September, down from 13.29 per cent in August.

However, the month-on-month core inflation rate increased to 1.11 per cent in September from -0.06 per cent in August.

This difference shows why it is important to look beyond the headline figure. Although the annual core inflation rate declined, the monthly movement indicates that prices within the underlying basket increased during September.

For businesses and households, these figures help explain why some expenses may continue to rise even when the general inflation rate is falling.

How the Inflation Report Affects Nigerian Households

Inflation figures are not just economic statistics. They influence how families plan their spending and how businesses make decisions.

When food, transportation, electricity and other essentials become expensive, households may have to make difficult choices about how to use their income.

A family that previously spent a particular amount on food may need more money to buy the same quantity of groceries. Workers may also find that a larger part of their salaries goes towards transportation and daily expenses.

For people whose income has not increased at the same pace as living costs, this can reduce the amount available for savings, education, healthcare and other needs.

Understanding the difference between a declining inflation rate and actual reductions in market prices is therefore important when interpreting economic news and why falling inflation does not mean everyday prices are going down.

What the Figures Mean for Businesses

Small businesses and larger companies are also affected by changes in inflation.

When operating costs increase, business owners have to decide whether to absorb the additional expenses, adjust their selling prices or find ways to reduce costs.

For manufacturers, energy and transportation expenses can influence production and distribution costs. For retailers, changes in wholesale prices can affect how much money they need to restock their shops.

Businesses that depend on regular customer spending may also experience changes in demand when households have less money available after paying for essential needs.

This makes inflation an important factor in business planning, pricing decisions and financial management.

What to Watch in the Coming Months

The September inflation report provides useful information about the direction of prices, but the next set of figures will be important in determining whether the improvement can continue.

Consumers will be watching food prices, fuel costs, transportation fares and other everyday expenses. Businesses will also be paying attention to energy costs, exchange rate movements and the cost of importing raw materials and finished goods.

The Central Bank of Nigeria will continue to monitor inflation and other economic indicators when making monetary policy decisions.

A sustained reduction in inflation could create more room for economic stability. However, lasting improvements will also depend on factors such as food production, transportation infrastructure, energy supply, exchange rate stability and the ability of businesses to operate at manageable costs.

A Lower Inflation Rate Is Only Part of the Story

Nigeria’s inflation rate falling to 14.63 per cent is an important development, particularly when compared with the 20.98 per cent recorded a year earlier.

However, the September figures also show that food inflation remains elevated and energy costs are still putting pressure on the economy.

For ordinary Nigerians, economic progress will become more meaningful when improvements in inflation translate into more manageable household expenses, better purchasing power and a more affordable cost of doing business.

The next inflation report will provide another opportunity to assess whether the country is moving towards more stable prices or whether pressure on essential goods and services remains a major challenge.